2018 Lee County Florida Market Update

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update

 This 2018 Lee County Florida Market Update was presented to the SWFL REIA at the January 2018 General Meeting.

By: Jeff Tumbarello, Broker/Owner Steelbridge Realty LLC, Director SWFLREIA

Data sourced from:

  • Residential Data is from MLS.
  • Cape Coral Permit Number from the City of Cape Coral.
  • Retiree Data is from Census.
  • Trended with Microsoft Excel.
  • Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.
  • Disclosure: My work is done for me and shared with you.

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Lee County Metrics

Volume and sales counts 1/1 thru 12/31

2016 2017 DIFF
Volume  $5,353,003,594 $5,571,557,529 4.08%
Counts 19,403 19,410 0.04%

The increase in Volume and sales counts are significant. This is from the stellar year the market was having before Hurricane Irma.

Volume and sales counts 1/1 thru 12/31

2016 2017 DIFF
Volume  $5,353,003,594 $5,571,557,529 4.08%
Counts 19,403 19,410 0.04%

Cash Sales Percentage 1/1 thru 12/31

2016 2017 DIFF
Cash Sales 8,112 7,976 -1.68%
Cash % 41.81% 41.09% -1.71%

The percentage of cash sales is higher than the national average and the state of Florida average. That inherently gives the market stability.

Distressed Sales 1/1 thru 12/31

2016 2017 DIFF
Distressed 6.08% 3.75% -38.36%

The lack of distressed sales indicates that there is very little bank-owned inventory.

Sales Counts by Property Type:

2016 2017 DIFF
Single Family 12,826 12,490 -2.62%
Villa Attached 789 809 2.53%
Low Rise (1-3) 3,343 3,461 3.53%
Mid Rise (4-7) 677 709 4.73%
Townhouse 703 739 5.12%
High Rise (8+) 419 522 24.58%

Pricing by Property Type:

Average Price 2016 Average Price 2017 Difference
Single Family $302,610 $319,721 5.65%
Villa Attached $202,180 $206,792 2.28%
Low Rise (1-3) $202,530 $205,990 1.71%
Mid Rise (4-7) $262,797 $266,539 1.42%
Townhouse $188,577 $187,110 -0.78%
High Rise (8+) $547,304 $512,338 -6.39%

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: What submarkets are growing?

Volume Counts Average Price
Fort Myers $1,538,030,243 6247 $246,203
Cape Coral $1,488,331,823 5621 $264,781
Bonita Springs $722,896,260 1701 $424,983
Estero $454,051,162 1302 $348,734
Lehigh Acres $329,458,901 2106 $156,438
Sanibel $281,736,498 317 $888,759
Fort Myers Beach $235,098,215 464 $506,677
North Fort Myers $170,726,157 963 $177,286
Captiva $83,648,670 79 $1,058,844
Miromar Lakes $69,281,885 71 $975,801
St. James City $42,259,442 154 $274,412
Alva $32,531,850 132 $246,453
Bokeelia $28,890,039 112 $257,947
Punta Gorda $18,687,351 70 $266,962

Year over year change by percentage: Red showed a reduction in volume

Volume Counts Average Price
Bokeelia 25.40% 3.70% 20.92%
Miromar Lakes 17.05% -6.58% 25.29%
Estero 12.71% 15.73% -2.61%
Cape Coral 10.47% 2.05% 8.25%
Sanibel 7.07% 2.59% 4.36%
Fort Myers Beach 6.94% 4.04% 2.79%
Lehigh Acres 5.47% -5.98% 12.18%
Fort Myers 2.69% 0.97% 1.70%
St. James City -2.08% 1.99% -3.98%
North Fort Myers -2.47% -6.32% 4.11%
Bonita Springs -5.16% -7.10% 2.09%
Punta Gorda -11.46% -6.67% -5.14%
Captiva -19.67% 25.40% -35.94%
Alva -37.31% -26.67% -14.51%

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Bubbles of sales Activity

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Hurricane Irma and the Market.

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update

Quarter 1 thru Quarter 3:

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Volume and sales counts Q1 – Q3

2016 2017 DIFF

Volume

 $4,085,225,713 $4,394,239,255

7.56%

Counts 14,937 15,152

1.44%

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Pricing Q1 – Q3

2016 2017 DIFF

Average

             $273,497 $290,011

6.04%

Median                $205,000 $220,000

7.32%

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Quarter 4, Hurricane Irmas aftermath.

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Quarter 4

Sales counts and volume.

2016 2017 DIFF
Volume  $1,267,777,881 $1,177,318,274

-7.14%

Counts

4,466 4,258

-4.66%

 

Median and Average Pricing.

2016 2017 DIFF

Average

 $283,873 $276,496

-2.60%

Median  $212,000 $217,000

2.36%

 

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update

 

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update

The data shows that Hurricane Irma had an effect on the market. The bubbles charts show a reduction in the sales above $500,000. It does not take many of these price points to change the volume.

 

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Where are we at in this cycle?

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update

 

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update

2018 Lee County Florida Market Update

We are correlating the last cycle from a retiree demographic standpoint but without the leverage driven mania that we experienced 200- 2006. We have a great demand than we did 2004-2006. We also appear to be growing a bit more checked. I attribute this due to the constraints in Dodd-Frank.

 

Things to watch for?

  • Volume and pricing in season. We have a very early Easter (4/1/2018). This leads to a busy March and May/June.
  • What effect do the millennia’s have on the market as they enter?
  • Cape Coral lot metrics and permit growth?
  • Dodd-Frank being repealed or watered down.
  • When landlords can get an acceptable gain elsewhere. There is a lot of trapped equity. Rising interest rates could provide a destination for the trapped equity in the market.
  • Rising Prices can provide a barrier for retirees.
  • Workforce housing shortage?
  • Tiny homes.
  • New Fed Chief? Will they change velocity that rates are raised?
  • True effect on the tax reform?
  • Stock Market? What if it crashes? What if it does not?
  • Cryptocurrency long-term trajectory and how mainstream does it become?

Stay tunbed and subscribe to our blog and or facebook page. We have an update coming from season and more work on the distressed, building permits and Cape Coral lot market.

Thanks for reading. Questions? Call 239 694 3300

 

Thinking of buying or selling? We would love to sit down and discuss your options.

buying a house in florida Steelbridge Realty LLC  is a Licensed Real Estate Brokerage that utilizes cutting edge marketing techniques and data driven Real Estate solutions in today’s ever changing environment. Our group of professionals have decades of experience and have navigated through many business cycles. Our diverse background gives us the tools to guide people towards successful decisions.

During the beginning of the housing downturn Steelbridge Realty LLC was the Brokerage arm of several private equity entities. We assisted them with asset modeling and market metrics. Many prominent local commercial projects were included in this scope of transactions. in 2012 Jeff and Cristina bought the other partner out and relocated the company to North Fort Myers. It now serves as a boutique style firm cater to it clients and the community at large.

For more information call 239 694 3300 or use the form below.




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